I've been using the Mastodon micro-blogging platform for a while now – increasingly choosing not to use or post on Twitter and committing myself to a democracy-friendly path.

I've become used to 'meeting' interesting people way outside my normal e-contact groups, and I have definitely reduced contact with the people I would normally engage with.

I've also become used to interacting on a platform which has far (far!) fewer users than Twitter. I've made the assumption that there's a short and medium-term cost to my own influence, and potentially to the commercial success of Afallen, by turning my back on one of the most visible and active micro-blogging platforms on the planet, because I believe that it's the ethical thing to do.

But....something strange is happening in the Fediverse. Mastodon has suddenly seen a huge surge in registrations.

Probably the largest instance (if you need a primer on the basics, this might help) of Mastodon is Mastodon.Social. There's a Mastodon account which tracks the number of registered users on that instance.

For months, the weekly number of new registered users was around 2,000 or so see the stats from 19 March, for example. And the total for the last week? 14,550.

I'm prepared for any number of explanations for this, ranging from a sudden raising of awareness about the platform in a particular country or language; to an awareness from spam-bots that it represents a new way to reach an audience.

However there's a tiny bit of me that's hopeful that it represents a real, meaningful increase in awareness and activity for the platform. The science behind social networks demonstrates that size begets size. So any increase in 'real' users on Mastodon is to be celebrated.

I've posed the question to the Fediverse about the reason for the surge, so it may turn out to be a statistical blip, or a bunch of bots. But for the time being...I'm dreaming of a step change in awareness about this amazing, hate-free, democracy-supporting platform.

Our little girl was over the moon to receive her first bike. We’d decided to use The Bike Club, because we were supporting a ‘reuse’ economy, where the company sends out reconditioned bikes. Then, when you need an upgrade – pretty much a given due to the normal process of children needing bigger everything – you send back your bike, and get one of the correct size.

We paid our monthly fee happily for more than a year, and our daughter loved the bike. Not ‘girly’. A lovely design, and fully suitable for her needs.

Then – after Christmas – we saw that she needed a new set of wheels. She’d outgrown her bike, and we decided to take up on the stated offer of a replacement (bigger) bike. As advertised, and as confirmed via an email from one of the customer service representatives.

Except we didn’t get the bike. With no explanation, we were told that no bikes were available – contradicting earlier assurances. Lengthy periods went without any contact, despite our repeated requests for information. Our daughter’s birthday came and went – with no bike forthcoming.

Eventually, when we were utterly frustrated with the company, we asked whether it would be cheaper for us to cancel the contract and pay the £30 bike return fee, or wait until a total of 18 months had elapsed, in which case we’d have been eligible for a replacement with shipping paid for. No response.

In the end we just cancelled the contract. My complaints on Twitter resulted in them blocking me. Likewise on Linkedin. My polite response to the Founder and a request to connect to discuss our issues, was ignored.

If you examine the company profile, The Bike Club is listed as a Financial Services Company. They’re currently extolling the virtues of their product as an investment. Not a values-based organisation, but one highly focused on profit.

My advice is to steer clear. Their claims of customer service – in our experience – can’t be supported. They have chosen to do the exact opposite of good practice in terms of public relations, which is to ignore complaints, instead of engaging with a genuine grievance.

Don’t use their service. Don’t invest. And advise your friends against.

A love letter to the European Union

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Dear European Union,

My relationship with you began on the day I was born, in the mid 1970s. As with all relationships, ours has evolved as we have grown together.

I was unaware of you, even as I travelled with my family to visit other Member States during my childhood, and into my teens. We went camping in France, took a bus to Italy (what an adventure that was!), and enjoyed an exchange visit to the north of Spain with our local outdoor education centre in Merthyr.

Through my early academic career I worked with fellow EU citizens in two of the UK’s finest academic institutions – I refer of course to Lancaster and Nottingham Universities – and I took cycling holidays through Norway, Sweden and Denmark one summer, and through Portugal, Spain and France the next.

It never occurred to me then to think about visa-free travel, or visa-free work, or the right to live and love in different countries. Why would it? I was merely exercising a right I had held my whole life. In the words of Joni Mitchell, “You don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone”.

I left academia to enter the world of renewable energy – starting with a job in the south of Spain, and continuing with work in Machynlleth, Bristol, Newcastle, and Copenhagen. In each of these jobs I worked on or with European projects – in Machynlleth I was a partner in four projects simultaneously – and in Denmark I had the privilege of working for a European Agency, the European Environment Agency.

I learnt hugely from my colleagues from the sisterhood of European countries. Yes, from colleagues within the UK, but also from every country in the European Union and beyond.

In 2012 I left Denmark to return to Wales, where I still live today. Wales – you will know this – was a huge recipient of structural funds from the European Union. I suspect that we will come to regret placing our trust in the campaign to leave the European Union. Replete with impossible promises, sweet poison and lies, we will now turn to Westminster, in its wisdom, to ensure that our farmers are able to maintain their custodianship of land and language; that our environment maintains its safeguards so we may fulfill our obligations to the ecology on which we depend. Although Wales maintains a measure of agency due to our Senedd, I fear that the promises of ‘not a penny lost’ will prove to be as empty as the plans for the manner of our exit on the morning after – that terrible morning – the referendum.

I will regret the barriers that will – almost inevitably – be erected to trade in agriculture and fisheries, which will impact so heavily on our small, family-owned farms and fishing businesses. I will also regret the impediments to travel and live within our continent, and particularly the increased challenges faced by families in living with their loved ones. It saddens me that we now require our fellow (ex-fellow) citizens to apply for certification to live in our country – at their expense, of course.

But most of all I grieve for the young people who will face financial and administrative barriers to enjoy living and working amidst the many pleasures of our wonderful continent. Of course, many will still find a way to do so. But doubtless many will be put off by the change in our relationship, and the UK will be the poorer for that.

In finishing this letter, I want you to know that I wish I had done more to demonstrate your value to my fellow citizens. In some tiny way, I am also to blame for this break-up. My promise to you is that I will do everything in my power to help bring the UK back to the family of countries that is the European Union. If that path is one based on the United Kingdom joining as a state of four constituent countries, I would be delighted. If a different path seems more likely – a path that includes these four UK countries going their separate ways – then I will do what I can to ensure that Wales plays its part as an enthusiastic and responsible member of the European Union.

I love EU. One day we will be reunited.

Social media has energised the way in which we interact, communicate, promote and understand. As with any tool, it has the ability to be used for good, or for ill.

I don’t intend here to detail the way that social media is used to abuse, to pillory, to demean and to spread hate. Nor is this a treatise about whether it’s democratically healthy for social media to be used by political parties or corporate entities to micro-target individuals or small communities with messages which may only be loosely based on fact, or indeed a complete fiction.

Instead, I want you to take a moment to imagine participating in a social network free from hate; one which doesn’t answer to shareholders; and where paid advertising directed by surveillance capitalism is not possible.

Now I want you to take a step further; I want you to imagine that same network, where you can share a picture (same way as Instagram); share a blog post (same way as Medium); share a micro-blog (same as Twitter); share a video (such as with YouTube) – and all the content from all those different platforms is brought to you in one place.

Hang onto your hats – it’s already here!

Unbeknown to most internet users, there’s a quiet revolution taking place on the fringes of the social web which merits close examination.

Fed up with pleading to Twitter, Facebook, Google and other internet giants to take action on abuse and to act on genuine privacy concerns, the open source community has created solutions which herald the dawning of a new era of accountable social media.

And Wales could be at the vanguard of this revolution, thanks partly to some imagination and drive from a boy from Barry who made it in New York, Jaz-Michael King.

The Fediverse

Before diving into how to join the revolution, it’s worth talking about how the Federated Universe – the Fediverse operates.

Unlike the existing social media monopolies, the Fediverse has no central company controlling the flow of content, and deciding what to permit or ban.

Instead, there’s a plethora of small sites – ‘Instances’ – which operate semi-autonomously from one another, but which are linked (federated) so that content can be viewed simultaneously on all federated platforms. Authors retain ownership and control of their content, while citizens can pick and choose the content and people they wish to connect with, free from profit-driven algorithms and their associated echo chambers.

So somebody posting a photo on Pixelfed (a federated photo-sharing site, which looks and feels just like Instagram) will instantly share that image with all their followers, on whatever ‘Instance’ they’re based.

Likewise, someone posting a micro-blog on a federated account (such as Mastodon) will share that post with all their followers across all whole ‘Fediverse’.

No more hate?

Whilst it would be a stretch to say that hate has no place within the Fediverse, it’s certainly no exaggeration to say that it is a far more pleasant place than most conventional social networks.

That’s because most Instances have rules which forbid unpleasant behaviour. The decision about what constitutes acceptable behaviour is up to the administrators or the community of that individual Instance, but if unpleasant behaviour consistently appears unchallenged on a specific Instance, it’s possible that all other Instances could sever ties, effectively inoculating the rest of the Fediverse from the content that’s being posted in the ‘bad’ Instance.

Indeed this has already happened in July this year, where an Instance supporting far-right speech was blackballed by many other instances, significantly limiting its ability to interact with the rest of the Fediverse. The success and growth of the Federation as a movement has been significantly driven by the growing dissatisfaction and loss of trust that the international corporate networks cannot (or will not) manage, and that smaller, locally-driven communities are more able to effectively self-manage.

Wales leading?

So – how could Wales be leading the charge?

Enter Toot.Wales, the brainchild of émigré Jaz-Michael King. Toot.Wales is Wales’ own instance of the micro-blogging site Mastodon. Fully bilingual by default, it is also on the verge of deploying its first mobile app for Android (with ios development underway).

Toot is also the host for Wales’ own answer to Instagram, via Pix.Toot.Wales, and for a ‘lite’ blogging experience via Blogs.Toot.Wales.

I often see people on Twitter complaining about certain functionalities not being available, including the most basic need for a Welsh language interface; about tools to control or limit abuse, about access to one’s own data and the right to delete it or download it.

My response is: leave the network. The influence we have with the owners of Twitter, Facebook or any other mainstream social media platform is vanishingly small. If complaints by users have implications on profit, they are unlikely to become a corporate priority. Regulation is possible, but is cumbersome, hard to enforce and likely to date quickly.

So we must vote with our feet. We have within our own hands, literally and metaphorically, the means to turn our backs on networks which value profit over privacy, and to champion an open source ethical alternative.

I believe that Wales can demonstrate to the rest of the world that it’s possible to take a stance on this issue. Already facing a crisis in media, we should no longer submit to the whims of global corporate giants. With so much of the information we receive being more or less completely out of the control of the people of Wales, this is one area where we genuinely can, and we should, be taking back control.

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You can follow David Clubb on Toot.Wales and Pixelfed.

This short blog post is to emphasise the inevitable limitations in modelling potentially catastrophic events several decades in the future, with specific relevance to the blog post entitled “Wales Underwater?”.

Climate Central uses the best available data to determine which land areas show a reasonable likelihood of being inundated on an annual basis in 2050. There are numerous limitations to the modelling, but some highly relevant ones for Wales include:

• Existing or future flood defences are not considered within the model. Some relevant examples are:
• The Cardiff Barrage which would doubtless provide considerable resilience to coastal surges for the two rivers which feed the Bay, although coastal water ingress from other areas is still an obvious severe risk to the city
• The sea protection at Borth, although it is easy to imagine coastal waters penetrating at many points along the extended shoreline
• The uncertainty with respect to elevation is around 10cm

However there are inevitable risk factors which could increase the likelihood of flooding more generally. This model considers only coastal flooding; with higher sea levels, combined with more frequent and severe rainfall, coastal and estuarine areas will almost certainly be at greater risk of river flooding as well as coastal flooding, with communities at slightly higher altitudes also potentially experiencing more frequent flood events.

The Wales of 2050 will be a very different place.

Our society, technology, culture and economy have always changed over generational timescales, so there's nothing inherently original or insightful in my opening statement. However the changes to come will be manifestly different to those experienced by previous generations.

That's because our current and future generations will experience profound geophysical changes, forcing society to react rapidly, and in some cases to discard long-loved, cherished and critical parts of our culture and infrastructure.

Sea level rise by 2050

Although it's impossible to know which of drought, flooding or wildfires will bring most misery to Wales' inhabitants by 2050 – and each of these are serious issues on their own merit – I hazard that coastal flooding exacerbated by sea level rise will eclipse all of them.

The latest data, published at the end of October, show graphically what happens to Wales' coastal conurbations within the next generation. And the implications of this – the best of our global modelling on climate change impacts – deserves serious consideration within Welsh Government, within our local authorities and indeed by us as individuals, householders and communities.

The data is interpreted in a way that helps us understand the impact in a map format by Climate Central, an independent organisation reporting on the facts of climate change. The modelling is based on the most robust and evidenced data, and although the modelling outputs come with inevitable caveats, they are the best indication we currently have about coastal flood risk for Wales.

Whilst the modelling is highly customisable depending on your appetite for risk, the version I've used for this article is the central scenario for climate change, which incorporates:

• 'Average' sea level rise plus annual flood
• Moderate cuts to GHG emissions, consistent with 2 Celsius warming
• Medium 'luck' (mid-range result from the range of possible projections of sea-level rise)

In the images that follow, anywhere coloured red is projected to be “below annual flood level” in 2050. That means that coastal flooding is anticipated to happen annually, with multiple flooding events also possible on an annual basis.

I'm going to take a place-by-place approach to the potential impacts, starting with my own hometown, Cardiff.

Cardiff

By 2050, much of Cardiff's urban area will be at risk of annual coastal flood events. Notwithstanding the resilience provided by the Barrage, coastal water ingress is likely to be an issue with much of the low-lying land along Cardiff's wider seafront, leading potentially to widespread penetration.

Many of our institutions will have to consider how they manage this risk, including iconic landmarks such as Cardiff Castle, the Royal Welsh College of Music & Drama, the National Assembly, Sophia Gardens, the International Sports Village and the Principality Stadium.

The Bay and a huge swathe of West Cardiff, including Grangetown, Riverside and Canton, along with the city centre, Bute Park, and huge chunks of east Cardiff such as Roath, Adamsdown and Tremorfa are highlighted as facing significant flooding issues.

Nationally significant infrastructure such as major electricity substations and railway and road infrastructure is potentially at risk, as are the large chemical and industrial sites which lie along Cardiff Bay and the dock areas.

Newport

Newport's famous hills, which provide spectacular viewpoints for the city and estuary and are a source of misery for casual cyclists, provide some resilience against coastal flooding.

Parts of the city centre, including the Royal Gwent hospital, escape the projected risk areas, but the Passport Office and Transporter Bridge, along with much of the riverside past Caerleon and beyond Newbridge-on-Usk fall into the annual coastal flood risk category.

The Gwent Levels along with several golf courses are at risk of regular inundation of salt water, with the natural habitat presumably being significantly more resilient than the leisure facilities.

Although not included in the image above, a large swathe of coastal land from Newport to Chepstow is at risk, including the whole of the mainline railway linking south Wales to Bristol and beyond.

The Vale of Glamorgan

The Vale demonstrates more resilience than the coast further east, by virtue of high cliffs along much of the coastline. Penarth faces only a very modest impact at the harbour, but Barry Island, the docks and ports and the Dow chemical plant are all at risk. The danger zone for Barry extends along to Sully and up towards the lowest lying areas of Dinas Powys.

The most heavily industrial parts of the vale, including around the power station and cement works near Aberthaw are included within the at-risk areas.

Bridgend

The misery of annual flooding for Bridgend County Borough appears to be concentrated on Porthcawl. The low-lying caravans of Trecco Bay are at risk, as are central residential areas of the town.

Neath Port Talbot

The low coastline from Porthcawl to Swansea poses significant potential problems for transport infrastructure, as well as for some industrial and residential sites. Areas impacted include the Kenfig Industrial Estate, the Port Talbot town and the residential areas of Aberavon, Baglan Moor, along with the Tata steelworks.

The Afon Nedd carries the risk further upstream, potentially impacting settlements along the riverside in Neath itself, nearl as far as Aberdulais.

Swansea

The impact for Swansea is mostly felt around the lower part of the town – Sandfields and the Maritime Quarter – and at the new Bay campus to the east of the city. The Amazon distribution centre, along with incoming road and rail links could also be impacted.

Carmarthen Bay

The estuary areas around Carmarthen Bay look particularly vulnerable, albeit in regions of low population density. The north Gower coast, along with swathes of the estuary ranging from Pontarddulais down to Pembrey and Kidwelly are at risk, as is the Pembrey West airport. The Afon Tywi is a flood risk factor for parts of Carmarthen and higher up the riverside. Further west Laugharne and St Clears are likely to be impacted.

Pembrokeshire

Pembrokeshire appears to be spared the worst of the coastal flooding risk, presumably because it has less land area at lower altitude than many other parts of Wales. The small but regionally significant populated centres of Pembroke and Haverfordwest will likely see some impact, and the campsite at Newgale – already a temporary lake-site during times of heavy rain – will be hit hard during high tides and storms.

Ceredigion

Whilst the southern part of the county escapes the worst of the coastal flood risk, the north will probably take quite a hit. Lower Aberystwyth, from the harbour up to Glanyrafon, could potentially be inundated, causing problems for transport infrastructure and for regulators and officials in Welsh Government and Natural Resources Wales.

Borth is predicted to be particularly vulnerable, with the whole village – and the estuary right up to Machynlleth- predicted to flood on an annual basis. On the other side of the estuary (and into Gwynedd), Aberdyfi and Tywyn also face huge challenges.

Gwynedd and Ynys Môn

Both these iconic counties face probably localised problems with coastal flooding in the decades to come.

Gwynedd's problems are in pockets in the south (Aberdyfi, Tywyn) and west (Porthmadog). Môn's issues will be felt strongest along the Afon Cefni, and in lower lying areas around The Valley in the west.

Conwy

The risks for Conwy are centred on the Afon Conwy, which could bring coastal floods upstream as far as Llanrwst, Llandudno, and the low-lying areas to the west of the Afon Clwyd. Large areas of agricultural land, as well as numerous coastal communities in this area and regionally significant transport and health infrastructure are vulnerable.

Denbighshire

Denbighshire has a short coastline, but it is low-lying, and therefore all modelled as having a very high risk by 2050.

The communities of Rhyl and Prestatyn face severe hardship from the impact of coastal flooding on an annual basis in the absence of any major infrastructure to provide coastal protection.

Flintshire

Flintshire's coast is also modelled as having severe risk. Potentially significant energy and industrial infrastructure including power stations, Tata Steel, the Deeside industrial estate and park and commercial sites at Shotton.

Singapore was first in 1975.

London’s got one. Stockholm’s got one. Durham, Milan, Gothenburg and Valletta have them.

Birmingham’s is on the way, as is one for Leeds and Paris.

Yet, in the ‘land of Future Generations’, we’re still waiting! So we’re setting out here why we think a ‘Clean Air Zone’, or a Congestion Charge, would be a good thing for Cardiff (as a starter – no reason why this shouldn’t be the default for built-up areas with high ambient pollution).

What is a Clean Air Zone (or Congestion Charge Zone)

We assume that a Clean Air Zone for Cardiff would charge polluting vehicles to enter city limits – defined as those areas which suffer regularly from high pollution levels.

We think that all non-resident private motor vehicles – except hydrogen, hybrid or fully electric vehicles – should have to pay a charge.

And we think that all the money raised from the charge should be used:

• To pay the costs of the scheme
• To improve ways of entering Cardiff without needing to use a private motor vehicle (such as train, metro, bus, park and ride and bicycle infrastructure and services)
• To improve Active Travel infrastructure within Cardiff

We also believe that Cardiff should follow Nottingham’s example of implementing a Workplace Parking Levy, and that this levy should be directed towards the same expenditure pots.

The Well-being of Future Generations Act specifies seven Goals which should be attained by public sector organisations, working in partnership with stakeholders across civil society. We think that the scheme we envisage would support six out of the seven goals. The impact that a Congestion or Clean Air Zone charge would have on them each is detailed below.

A Healthier Wales

Air pollution is directly responsible for increased morbidity and mortality in the population at large, with particularly damaging effects on the elderly and vulnerable.

It decreases lung function, causes respiratory infection, and significantly increases the risk of stroke, heart disease and lung cancer. Maternal exposure to high levels of air pollution is associated with adverse birth outcomes. Reducing the number of private motor vehicles entering the city would reduce overall levels of air pollution.

A More Equal Wales

Pollution from vehicles does not affect the people of Wales equally. People with high wealth can choose more easily where they live, and are able to leave areas which suffer from high levels of pollution. People with higher educational attainment may be able to access information which can be used to mitigate exposure levels, or identify preferred areas to live or spend time. Pollution has greater health impacts on those who are less able to avoid it, such as young children and the elderly.

A charge on private vehicles entering Cardiff would reduce air pollution, particularly for poor and vulnerable groups, supporting a More Equal Wales

A Globally Responsible Wales

Private motor vehicles which would be eligible for a Cardiff City entrance charge are also those which use fossil fuel. The use of fossil fuel is one of the main causes of climate change, so a reduction in the number of fossil-fueled private motor vehicles will reduce Wales’ contribution to Climate Change, supporting a Globally Responsible Wales.

A Prosperous Wales

Reducing our urban air pollution will reduce morbidity associated with air pollution, reducing the cost of treating such illness and enabling resources to be spent in other areas. A reduction in the use of fossil fuel will also reduce the ‘leakage’ of money which accompanies the purchase of fuel which is produced far away and transported to Wales at significant cost – paid for by Welsh householders and businesses.

A Resilient Wales

The funding which is raised from the scheme should be (partly) recycled into improved Active Travel infrastructure, and into infrastructure and services which support public transport. The use of Active Travel infrastructure in particular is far more resilient to the impacts of flooding or other Climate Change-related impacts (if a section of a cycle or walking path is flooded, it’s often possible to find an alternative route through that part, in a way that’s much more challenging for motor vehicles). Reduced air and water pollution will also contribute towards a more healthy ecosystem – part of Wales’ resilience.

A Wales of Cohesive Communities

Improved provision of Active Travel networks, funded by a Cardiff vehicular access charge, would provide an infrastructure which contributes directly to this Goal, namely “Attractive, viable, safe and well-connected communities”.

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We think the science and evidence supporting the implementation of a Congestion Charge/Clean Air Zone for Cardiff are compelling, and strongly aligned with the Well-being Goals – as well as (potentially) those of a Cardiff National Park City! We would encourage the Councillors and citzens of Cardiff to push for these measures to improve the quality of life for all.