Limitations to the coastal flooding model

This short blog post is to emphasise the inevitable limitations in modelling potentially catastrophic events several decades in the future, with specific relevance to the blog post entitled “Wales Underwater?”.

Climate Central uses the best available data to determine which land areas show a reasonable likelihood of being inundated on an annual basis in 2050. There are numerous limitations to the modelling, but some highly relevant ones for Wales include:

However there are inevitable risk factors which could increase the likelihood of flooding more generally. This model considers only coastal flooding; with higher sea levels, combined with more frequent and severe rainfall, coastal and estuarine areas will almost certainly be at greater risk of river flooding as well as coastal flooding, with communities at slightly higher altitudes also potentially experiencing more frequent flood events.